Forschung
Kürzlich erschienen
- Schnettler, Sebastian & Sebastian Klüsener (2013): Economic stress or random variation? Revisiting German reunification as a natural experiment to investigate the effect of economic contraction on sex ratios at birth. Working Paper, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock. [--> PDF]
Abstract: The economic stress hypothesis (ESH) suggests that economic decline leads to a decrease in the proportion of males born in a population. A multitude of additional influences on sex ratios that often cannot be accounted for empirically make assessing the validity of the ESH difficult. Thus, as a historical quasi-experiment, German reunification constitutes an interesting test case. The economy in East Germany, but not in West Germany, underwent a rapid decline in 1991. In the same year, the sex ratio decreased in East Germany, but not in West Germany. Catalano (2003) interpreted these developments as evidence in support of the ESH. Using more recent and detailed data, we re-examine this case to test an alternative explanation, the random variation hypothesis (RVH). Using aggregate data on sex ratios between 1946-2010 and individual-level data on over 13 million births from the German Birth Registry between 1991-2009, we find evidence supporting the RVH but not the ESH. First, the sex ratio in East Germany shows stronger deviations from the time trend in several years, and is seemingly unrelated to economic developments. The degree of variation is associated with the smaller and decreasing number of births in East Germany during the fertility decline following reunification. The individual-level analysis confirms that the 1991 decrease in the East German sex ratio could also be the result of random variation. A specificity of the East German transformation is the buffering of the consequences of economic decline through integration into the West German welfare state. Therefore, the ESH may be applicable in other transformation cases.
- Auspurg, Katrin/Gatskova, Ksenija/Hinz, Thomas (2013): Vorstellungen von Lohngerechtigkeit in West- und Ostdeutschland und in der Ukraine. In: WSI Mitteilungen 2/2013: 77-88. [--> Link zum Artikel]
Abstract: Unter welchen Umständen gilt ein bestimmtes Erwerbseinkommen als fair und gerecht? Geht es gerecht zu, wenn jede und jeder nach der erbrachten Leistung entlohnt wird – oder nach seinem bzw. ihrem Bedarf? Gilt das als gerecht, was man gewöhnt ist? Oder unterstützen die Menschen Verteilungsprinzipien, bei denen sie selbst besser wegkommen als andere? Gerade in sich rasant verändernden Gesellschaften, in denen sich die Einkommensverteilung tief greifend wandelt, stehen Idealbilder von Gerechtigkeit in besonderer Weise auf dem Prüfstand. Die Vorstellungen von Einkommensgerechtigkeit in zwei Transformationsgesellschaften, Ostdeutschland und der Ukraine, sowie in der Referenzgesellschaft Westdeutschlands unterscheiden sich eindrücklich. - Schnettler, Sebastian (2013): Revisiting a Sample of U.S. Billionaires: How Sample Selection and Timing of Maternal Condition Influence Findings on the Trivers-Willard Effect. In: PLOS ONE (8): e57446. [--> Link zum Artikel]
Abstract: Based on evolutionary theory, Trivers & Willard (TW) predicted the existence of mechanisms that lead parents with high levels of resources to bias offspring sex composition to favor sons and parents with low levels of resources to favor daughters. This hypothesis has been tested in samples of wealthy individuals but with mixed results. Here, I argue that both sample selection due to a high number of missing cases and a lacking specification of the timing of wealth accumulation contribute to this equivocal pattern. This study improves on both issues: First, analyses are based on a data set of U.S. billionaires with near-complete information on the sex of offspring. Second, subgroups of billionaires are distinguished according to the timing when they acquired their wealth. Informed by recent insights on the timing of a potential TW effect in animal studies, I state two hypotheses. First, billionaires have a higher share of male offspring than the general population. Second, this effect is larger for heirs and heiresses who are wealthy at the time of conception of all of their children than for self-made billionaires who acquired their wealth during their adult lives, that is, after some or all of their children have already been conceived. Results do not support the first hypothesis for all subgroups of billionaires. But for males, results are weakly consistent with the second hypothesis: Heirs but not self-made billionaires have a higher share of male offspring than the U.S. population. Heiresses, on the other hand, have a much lower share of male offspring than the U.S. average. This hints to a possible interplay of at least two mechanisms affecting sex composition. Implications for future research that would allow disentangling the distinct mechanisms are discussed.
- Martin Kolk & Sebastian Schnettler (2012): Parental Status and Gender Preferences for Children. Is Differential Fertility Stopping Consistent with the Trivers-Willard Hypothesis? Journal of Biosocial Science, Online FirstView. [--> Link zum Artikel]
Abstract: Based on evolutionary reasoning, Trivers & Willard (1973) predicted status-biased sex composition and parental investment with son-preferencing effects in higher, and daughter-preferencing effects in lower status groups. Previous research shows mixed results. This study uses event-history methods and Swedish register data to study one possible mechanism in isolation: do parents in different status groups vary in their proclivities to continue fertility based on the sex composition of previous offspring? The results show no support for the Trivers–Willard hypothesis on a wide range of different status indicators. Future research on the stated hypothesis should focus on physiological rather than behavioural mechanisms.
- Sauer, Carsten, Katrin Auspurg, Thomas Hinz und Stefan Liebig (2011): The Application of Factorial Survey in General Population Surveys: The Effects of Respondent Age and Education on Response Times and Response Consistency. In: Survey Research Methods (5): 89-102.
Abstract: Over the last decade, there has been a marked increase in the number of studies on attitude and decision research which use the factorial survey (FS) design. The FS integrates experimental set-ups into a survey: respondents react to hypothetical descriptions (vignettes) while the values of each attribute (dimension) of these descriptions systematically vary in order to estimate their impact on respondent judgments. As the vignettes are based on a number of dimensions and as respondents evaluate several vignettes, FSs are demanding in terms of individual cognitive and information-processing abilities. So far, there is little empirical knowledge of whether and to what extent this complexity is feasible in general population samples with heterogeneous respondents. Two different indicators for cognitive load as well as learning and fatigue effects are analyzed: 1) latency time and 2) response consistency. The results show that raw reaction times but not latency times are longer for older respondents, suggesting that the cognitive effort needed for the evaluation of vignettes is not particularly high. Consistency measures reveal that respondents with a lower educational level show greater inconsistency in their evaluations when the number of vignettes is high. The number of dimensions has an effect on consistency only when respondents have to rate a large number of vignettes. In short, the results demonstrate that FSs are applicable in general population samples but should be used with a limited number of vignettes and dimensions per respondent. [--> PDF]
- Kolk, Martin und Sebastian Schnettler (2011): Parental Status and Gender Preferences of Children: Is Differential Fertility Stopping Consistent with the Trivers-Willard Hypothesis?, in: Stockholm Research Reports in Demography (22), 1-39.
Abstract: Based on evolutionary reasoning, Trivers and Willard (1973) predict status-biased sex composition and parental investment with son-preferencing effects in higher, and daughter-preferencing effects in lower status groups. Previous research shows mixed results. Using event-history methods and Swedish register data, we study one possible mechanism in isolation: Do parents in different status groups vary in their proclivities to continue fertility based on the sex composition of previous offspring? Results show no support for the Trivers-Willard hypothesis on a wide range of different status indicators. We recommend that future research on the stated hypothesis focuses on physiological rather than behavioral mechanisms. [--> PDF]
- Auspurg, Katrin und Thomas Hinz (2011): What Fuels Publication Bias? Theoretical and Empirical Analyses of Risk Factors Using the Caliper-Test, in: Journal of Economics and Statistics (235): 630-660.
Abstract: Significance tests were originally developed to enable more objective evaluations of research results. Yet the strong orientation towards statistical significance encourages biased results, a phenomenon termed “publication bias”. Publication bias occurs whenever the likelihood or time-lag of publication, or the prominence, language, impact factor of journal space or the citation rate of studies depend on the direction and significance of research findings.
Although there is much evidence concerning the existence of publication bias in all scientific disciplines and although its detrimental consequences for the progress of the sciences have been known for a long time, all attempts to eliminate the bias have failed. The present article reviews the history and logic of significance testing, the state of research on publication bias, and existing practical recommendations. After demonstrating that more systematical research on the risk factors of publication bias is needed, the paper suggests two new directions for publication bias research. First, a more comprehensive theoretical model based on theories of rational choice and economics as well as on the sociology of science is sketched out. Publication bias is recognized as the outcome of a social dilemma that cannot be overcome by moral pleas alone. Second, detection methods for publication bias going beyond meta-analysis, ones that are more suitable for testing causal hypotheses, are discussed. In particular, the “caliper test” seems well-suited for conducting theoretically motivated comparisons across heterogeneous research fields like sociology. Its potential is demonstrated by testing hypotheses on (a) the relevance of explicitly vs. implicitly stated research propositions and on (b) the relevance of the number of authors on incidence rates of publication bias in 50 papers published in leading German sociology journals.
- Schnettler, Sebastian und Anja Steinbach (2011): How do biological and social kinship play out within families in the U.S.? An evolutionary perspective on perceived parental care and closeness in adolescents, in: Zeitschrift für Familienforschung (23): 173-195. [--> PDF]
Abstract: Consistent with inclusive fitness theory, evolutionary biologists predict that individuals care more for their biological than their social children and hence that biological children assess the relationships to their parents better than stepchildren. To test this assumption, we use data from the U.S. National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Unlike many other studies that have been conducted so far, this survey allows us to analyze the consequences of the dynamic between social and biological parent-child relationships within the same families. We use comparisons of sibling pairs and fixed-effects regression to achieve the within-family comparison. Both the descriptive and multivariate regression results confirm that – even after controlling for other relevant influences – biological parenthood matters with regard to children’s relationship assessments (perceived parental care and closeness of the parent-child relationship) and in both the relationships to resident fathers and mothers. In the discussion, we comment on the possible integration of the evolutionary and sociological perspectives and close with some recommendations for future data collection that could allow researchers to analyze the relative impact of biological and social influences on parent-child relationships on a more fine-grained level.
- Auspurg, Katrin und Ulf Liebe (2011): Choice-Experimente und die Messung von Handlungsentscheidungen in der Soziologie, in: Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie (63): 301-314.
Abstract: In umfragebasierten Choice-Experimenten wählen Befragte aus verschiedenen (Handlungs-)Alternativen die von ihnen am meisten präferierte aus. Indem Merkmale dieser Alternativen gezielt variiert werden, lässt sich ihr Einfluss auf die abgefragten Auswahlentscheidungen bestimmen und eine weitaus direktere Prüfung kausaler Zusammenhänge erreichen als mit „herkömmlichen“ Befragungsdaten. Im Gegensatz zu den verwandten Faktoriellen Surveys ist die Methodik direkter auf Handlungs- und Entscheidungstheorien zugeschnitten und bereits eine hohe externe Validität belegt. Im vorliegenden Beitrag werden Choice-Experimente in ihren Grundzügen dargestellt (theoretische Fundierung, Ausgestaltung, Datenerhebung und -auswertung) und vergleichend zu Faktoriellen Surveys diskutiert. Ziel ist es, praktische Handreichungen zu geben und zu vermehrten soziologischen Anwendungen zu motivieren.
- Auspurg, Katrin und Thomas Hinz (2011): Master für Alle? Der Einfluss sozialer Herkunft auf den Studienverlauf und das Übertrittsverhalten von Bachelorstudierenden, in: Soziale Welt (62): 75-99.
Abstract: Der Bologna-Prozess hat mit der neuen Struktur von Bachelor- und Masterprogrammen das deutsche Hochschulsystem maßgeblich verändert. Obwohl eine Begabtenauslese für das Masterstudium angestrebt war, fallen die Übergangsquoten bundesweit sehr hoch aus. Vorliegende Studie untersucht das Übertrittsverhalten in ein Masterstudium und seine Determinanten für knapp 700 Bachelorabsolventen einer deutschen Universität.
- Auspurg, Katrin und Thomas Hinz (2011): Gruppenvergleiche bei Regressionen mit binären abhängigen Variablen - Probleme und Fehleinschätzungen am Beispiel von Bildungschancen im Kohortenverlauf, in: Zeitschrift für Soziologie (40): 62-73.
Abstract: Die vorliegende Forschungsnotiz verweist auf eine bekannte, aber selten beachtete Problematik bei Vergleichen von Koeffizienten aus Regressionen mit binären abhängigen Variablen zwischen Gruppen. Damit Vergleiche von Logit- und Probit-Koeffizienten sowie Odds-Ratios (OR) über Gruppen oder Kohorten hinweg tragfähig sind, muss angenommen werden, dass die unbeobachtete Heterogenität in allen betrachteten Gruppen gleich ist. Dies ist zumindest bei Vergleichen von Kohorten oder Schätzungen, die Datensätze aus unterschiedlichen Ländern oder Erhebungsdesigns nutzen, eine sehr unrealistische Annahme. Wir schlagen daher vor, statt der OR die durchschnittlichen Marginaleffekte für Gruppenvergleiche heranzuziehen. Weiterhin verweisen wir auf eine Möglichkeit, Gruppenunterschiede in solchen Modellen auf statistische Signifikanz zu prüfen. Anhand des Beispiels von Bildungschancen im Kohortenvergleich lässt sich veranschaulichen, dass bei Beachtung der Problematik unbeobachteter Heterogenität wichtige Schlussfolgerungen anders ausfallen.
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